A level 5 rogue will quite probably have a thievery dc of 13, if they invest in it and max dex. The average lock has a dc of 25 and requires 4 successes. It takes a roll of 12 or better to have a single success, and will average about 9 rolls to rack up those 4 successes. With 9 rolls wherein you crit fail on a 2 or lower, the likelihood of breaking a pick is ~61%.
Should a level 5 rogue take a minute to open the average lock, and more likely than not break a pick in the process?
And let’s look at a good Lock: DC 30, requiring 5 successes. The level 5 rogue will only succeed on a 17, meaning it will take on average 20 attempts to get those 5 successes. On one attempt in a thousand our Lvl 5 rogue will open this lock before breaking a pick, and will typically break 3 in the process.
Am I missing something?
I know how to pick locks. It’s not terribly difficult to learn the basics, and is pretty fun to do. I’m certainly not an expert like LPL, but I know that picking a lock will take most people a lot more than six seconds, unless it’s a really basic one and you’re not under any pressure.
PF2’s rule, where anything other than the simplest locks require multiple attempts over several rounds, absolutely tracks with how it works in the real world.
I’m glad my speculation turned out somewhat reasonable. :P