I listened to an interview recently, I believe on BBC, where the interviewee said the biggest issue with peace talks is that the international community isn’t able to trust Putin to keep his word on whatever is agreed upon. I hadn’t considered that, but it makes a lot of sense and I’m not sure how that could change
But Putin was they only party to the previous Minsk agreements who kept his word. Merkel and then Hollande admitted that they never had any intention of honoring the agreements.
The international community being G7 countries accounting for 15% of world population. Nobody gives a fuck what the west thinks at this point.
Russia won’t be trustworthy until Putin and his fascist United Russia party are gone.
Who was the interviewee?
it makes a lot of sense and I’m not sure how that could change
It will change when the cancer finally kills that bastard.
The same argument can be used in favor of Russia. NATO has invaded plenty of countries under false pretenses in the past. Both Russia and NATO do not have a reputation for keeping their promises.
“plenty”
Unironically yes, NATO members have invaded a lot of places, often in coalition with other member states.
That’s like saying Canada is responsible for something Mexico did because they’re both on the same continent…
NATO is purely a defense agreement.
Tell that to Libya.
It is more like saying the axis is known to invade nations because its member states invade nations. Okay, sure, Germany and Italy invaded the soviet union but Japan didn’t, you can’t say they’re not a defensive alliance /s
- The Intercept, 2021: Meet NATO, the Dangerous “Defensive” Alliance Trying to Run the World
- CounterPunch, 2022: NATO is Not a Defensive Alliance
- Noam Chomsky, 2023: NATO “most violent, aggressive alliance in the world”
- Thomas Fazi, 2024: NATO: 75 years of war, unprovoked aggressions and state-sponsored terrorism
- Jeffrey Sachs, 2024: The 2024 NATO Declaration The Deadly Strategy of Neoconservatism
.
You draw new borders and stop shooting, that’s a start. You then keep the agreement by having enough military for a new invasion to be undesirable. Simple game theory. Trust and promises only work for societies that mutually respect each other.
The primary problem is that for negotiations to even begin is that Ukraine itself has a law that forbids anybody to negotiate with Putin before Ukraine has regained all it’s lands, even Zelensky himself would technically speaking commit treason by agreeing to talk on peace terms before this law is repealed. That is unless Scholz speaks of the “Zelensky peace plan” that is basically Russia gives up all the pre 2014 territories and then Kiev will negotiate with Moscow. Which is equally nonsensical and impossible situation.
I don’t know if what if any Scholz is trying to do here. All talk most likely for domestic audience, because the opposition won big in regional elections in Germany lately on “no more money to Ukraine” platform.
Ukraine’s government can change that law if they want to, of course. And if things keep going as they have been, they will have to choose between doing that and losing even more territory.
Attempts at maximum escalation have not produced good results for the Ukrainian people. I would like fewer of them to die given the realistic options available.
Re: Scholz I think the higher-ups in Western Europe are aware that their “support for Ukraine” is more about trying to hurt Russia than help the Ukrainian people. I would expect more to jump ship as the possibility of anything other than a full rout starts to vanish. These countries aren’t going to actually sacrifice anything they value in order to actually help common Ukrainian people. At the moment their “aid” is mostly weapons and ammunition whose main purpose is to prop up military contractors.
Or NATO just allows them to destroy airfields Russia is launching rockets from.
So our choice is to give the purse to the thief that wants more land in the future, or slap the knife out of his hand
Russia has far more military capacity than Ukraine. Every escalation runs the risk of Russia adopting NATO’s scorched earth tactics. Russia clearly sees value in the slow grind approach, which they explain as a de facto demilitarization of Ukraine, but if they ever stop seeing value in that…
Don’t forget what NATO member countries do to their military targets and what the outcomes are. Every population center in North Korea bombed out. Agent orange, napalm, mass bombing campaigns in Laos and Vietnam. Reckless and depraved mass killings in Algeria. Two invasions of Iraq and interceding sanctions that killed millions of children, with a heavy focus on the destruction of civilian infrastructure.
Hoping for escalation can only mean hoping fot mass death for Ukrainians. This is not a movie or an idle fantasy where we get to play pretend about knocking a knife out if the bad guys hands. This is the real world with actual troop deployments and bombing campaigns and industrial bases and drones that pick people off while they sleep and a country that still functions but can be made to not with about a week of bombings.
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How many people died in Iraq between 1989 and 2007 as a result of NATO member war and sanctions?
PS the primary targeting of civilians in Ukraine is done by far right cadres against Donbas civilians.
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And how many people in Iran and Kuwait died from Saddam’s bullshit?
I’ll wait for you to answer my question first. You seem to be forgetting what we are talking about. Take as much time as you need.
You’d be much more effective with these arguments if you weren’t defending war criminals.
Please try to engage in good faith and not put words in my mouth.
Cute fantasy.
It sounds like you are unfamiliar with the civil war in Ukraine from 2014 and on. 4X longer and constant shelling. Union halls burned down with people locked inside.
Allow me to retort, but WITH FACTS, because you have NONE to support your laughable assertions: [a list of articles you just Googled]
Feel free to state your point and what meaning you would like to share from your list of links. Take as much time as you need to formulate your thesis or counterargument.
How fucking evil do you have to be to bomb a children’s hospital?
Yes, bombing civilian infrastructure is horrific. The NATO countries I mentioned systematically target it. Rather than one hospital, imagine it was 80% of them. No clean water. Medical personnel routinely targeted. No imports of medicine, limited food. Disruption and control over electricity. Israel is doing this right now in Gaza. You can see with your own eyes what the difference is.
How evil are the countries that do this on a much larger scale and systematically?
And you say Ukraine is targeting civilians
Of course, that is what the shelling of Donbas has been for a decade. UA has continued to bombard civilian areas of the city of Donetsk this whole time.
It’s a petty, evil, deliberate distortion of the truth.
Have you no shame? not an ounce?
I have listed basic fact. Please allow yourself to process this information that is new to you rather than lashing out and making things up.
Endless escalation is impossible. Russia has nukes.
Even assuming Ukraine starts winning the conventional war against all odds, If the situation ever looks too dire Ukraine does not have the required MAD deterrence to prevent Russia from nuking them.
Russia has nukes.
At this point their nukes are likely in the same sorry state as their dictator: old, frail, failing
This fairy tale of Russia being flat broke and out of weapons wasted its credibility years ago. If it was true Ukraine would have won by now.
This fairy tale of Russia being flat broke and out of weapons
Uh hu and where did I make that claim? Straw man much? :]
Edit: looks like a well equiped force tho lmao https://sopuli.xyz/post/16837255
I believe it must be seen as a meagre attempt to appeal to the rising numbers of supporters of the AfD and BSW. Both political parties have won significant ground in the latest state elections and both can be considered Putin-friendly, to say the least.
In the past, Schulz has followed closely the position and decisions of the USA and I cannot see this changing in the foreseeable future.
Sooo they can bend the law and postpone holding elections, but they cannot bend it to hold peace talks? It’s just an excuse.
Essentially yes because both holding elections or negotiating would spell doom to many Kiev politicians and very likely not just their political careers.
Quite the irony; somehow not doing anything and getting people killed needlessly and destroying your own nation is an okay path forward, but trying to find a compromise that stops that would cost you your career… I mean, it’s not surprising, but also really sad.
Sooo they can bend the law and postpone holding elections
No, Ukraine was attacked, so parliament and president declared martial law. Ukraine is constitutionally prohibited from holding elections until it is over.
I am the most inexpert of laypeople on this subject, but I’ve wondered whether the incursion into Russian territory has been to give Ukraine a better position to negotiate on a mutual return of territory in talks, if they come about.
We have to speculate about it, but it is a reckless maneuver that has led to the nee, rapid losses on the main front. I would expect that it is reckless ideologues trying to push it.
Ukraine has seen some high-profile resignations just before and during this, so it is possible that the early resignations was people opposed to invading a sliver of Kursk and the later ones might be people that wanted to invade.
But this is just guessing.
It’s incredibly funny that the level from which we’d be ‘stepping up’ is holding a 70 nation conference for peace that the country winning the war was not invited to
Considering their idea of peace is the total capitulation of their opponent and systematic erasure of its population, I dont see what tangible benefit inviting them would be.
systematic erasure of its population
You sound like a raving lunatic
[Citation needed]
NYT: Ukraine-Russia Peace Is as Elusive as Ever. But in 2022 They Were Talking.
“Systematic eradication of a population” is just bullshit projection of the decade before this war started.
- BBC, 2014: Ukraine underplays role of far right in conflict
- Human Rights Watch, 2014: Ukraine: Unguided Rockets Killing Civilians
- The Hill, 2017: The reality of neo-Nazis in Ukraine is far from Kremlin propaganda
- The Guardian, 2017: ‘I want to bring up a warrior’: Ukraine’s far-right children’s camp – video
- WaPo, 2018: The war in Ukraine is more devastating than you know
- Reuters, 2018: Ukraine’s neo-Nazi problem
- The Nation, 2019: Neo-Nazis and the Far Right Are On the March in Ukraine
- openDemocracy, 2019: Why Ukraine’s new language law will have long-term consequences
- Jacobin, 2022: A US-Backed, Far Right–Led Revolution in Ukraine Helped Bring Us to the Brink of War
- Al Jazeera, 2022: Why did Ukraine suspend 11 ‘pro-Russia’ parties?
- History of Fascism in Ukraine: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV
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Step up military aid to Ukraine significantly. That is the only way to peace. Giving in to russian demands would only lead to a short cease fire, before they launch their next attack.
That so many Germans have bought into russian propaganda is a major hurdle.
real easy to say for someone not in a warzone
Given the requests for more military aid comes from people in ukraine.
Seems. Your the one arguing against them from a position of safty.
Ill add. My now passed grandfather raised me.
He was a pacifist durimg the second world war. He and many were forced to mine resorces. As they refused to fight. As he was an engineer he was eventually reasigned to other work. Aircraft instrament manufacture at smiths.
But at no point did he think the UK should just allow germany to take over.
He just knew he was not able to fight himself. This was a commonf feeling among those conscripted during the second world war. And will always be a risk whe. A mation needs to defend itself from agressors.
Not all of a nations people are best suited to fight.
Tell us all about it then, colonel
Warzone are not, Ukraine got invaded by the rest of the world pussyfooting around, which to dictators only smells like weakness
Ask the Ukrainians what they think. It’ll be amusing to see how they flounce you.
Giving in to tyranny is voluntary slavery.
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Why do you think there would be a “next attack” and where?
peace is when more war harder
the more war harder you war, the less putin you propaganda
I was wondering why this had so many downvotes until I noticed the instance this is on.
It’s more positive than I expected. 😁
lmao even Scholz is starting to realize Ukraine lost the war
There’s an easy answer to bring peace to Ukraine. The Russians can pack up all their shit and just go home.
How do you expect that to happen?
- A palace coup by the oligarchs
- A civil war in Russia
- China and India stop trading with Russia
- Russia runs out of tanks
- Russia runs out of money
Take your pick.
A palace coup by the oligarchs
“The oligarchs” are just the ultra-rich owners of companies. Like US billionaires or the South Korean Chaebol owners. This war was launched and us maintained with their consent and support. They are the head of the capitalist ruling class in the RF. If they changed their minds Putin would just appear to have decided this himself.
So far, the Russian economy has actually improved during the war and profits are high.
A civil war in Russia
Why would this be a plausible thing to happen in the next few years?
China and India stop trading with Russia
And shoot themselves in the foot? Why? US-led sanctions and financial weapons deployed against Russia have already scared countries into working together to avoid being vulnerable to the US.
Russia runs out of tanks
Russia has increased its industrial capacity during this war. The opposite is more likely: the US and Western Europe have been sending old stocks but they are failing to replace them fast enough, particularly artillery.
Russia runs out of money
But Russia is actually doing better than before. They have been forced to invest in the real economy and consequently have, against the plans of their finance capitalist economists, made their economy much more robust.
These aren’t realistic outcomes. And the problem with rose-tinted glasses here is that it means a lot of Ukrainians die for no reason.
This war was launched and us maintained with their consent and support. They are the head of the capitalist ruling class in the RF.
They certainly are but they are all subservient to Putin. They stand to lose quite a lot when Russia loses. And when they decide to cut their losses. Putin will lose his head. That’s why he is so paranoid.
So far, the Russian economy has actually improved during the war and profits are high.
Now I know you’re trolling. Nobody sane will look at Russia’s recent financial figures and conclude that Russian economy is going great.
Why would this be a plausible thing to happen in the next few years?
A civil war is a real possibility because of disgruntled soldiers. Who are not getting paid. Don’t get what they are promised in terms of equipment training etc. General mismanagement, corruption and abuse in the Russian army. The number of casualties cannot be hidden any more either. Recruiting more soldiers is getting harder and harder for Russia. Why else would they pay more and more money for recruitment? The people know how fucked up things are for a common soldier. Especially now that Ukraine is in Kursk. Where most of the soldiers were conscripts.
And shoot themselves in the foot? Why? US-led sanctions and financial weapons deployed against Russia have already scared countries into working together to avoid being vulnerable to the US.
Then why are Chinese banks refusing to work with Russia for fear of sanctions? Why Russian banks resorting to crypto currencies and paying middle-men to conduct trade?
Russia has increased its industrial capacity during this war.
It certainly has. Refurbishing old soviet-era tanks from cold storage. Russia is not producing new tanks nearly fast enough compared to what they are losing in Ukraine. And many of the cold storage sites are now empty. It is only a matter of time before Russia runs out of tanks. It is telling that they aren’t delivering the already ordered tanks abroad and are instead importing older tanks.
But Russia is actually doing better than before. They have been forced to invest in the real economy and consequently have, against the plans of their finance capitalist economists, made their economy much more robust.
Again with the trolling about strong Russian economy when the financial figures give quite a different picture.
Russian currency reserves are falling. Next to go will be the gold reserves. Russia only has Chinese yuan and gold left. And China is now demanding payments in gold.
Inflation is really high. Any country that has a higher inflation right now is in the middle of a financial meltdown.
Ruble is weak. And holding on by artificial restrictions.
Due to the war and declining population, both due to brain drain and lack of children, Russia has a severe worker shortage.
These are not the signs of a strong and healthy economy.
They certainly are but they are all subservient to Putin.
No, they’re all on the same team and their collective is the most powerful thing. If the major owners of companies all want a policy change in a capitalist system, they get it. Putin is their political operative and has power with their consent.
They stand to lose quite a lot when Russia loses. And when they decide to cut their losses. Putin will lose his head. That’s why he is so paranoid.
When Russia loses? They are winning, their economy is booming, and the country is stable. You’ve just listed a series of implausible outcomes. Is there a probable one you haven’t told me?
Now I know you’re trolling. Nobody sane will look at Russia’s recent financial figures and conclude that Russian economy is going great.
Happy to discuss them. How is the ruble doing? Total imports and exports? Employment? Shortages? Inflation?
civil war is a real possibility because of disgruntled soldiers. Who are not getting paid
The RF pays its soldiers.
Don’t get what they are promised in terms of equipment training etc.
This also happens in the US but their only civil war was over slavery. What evidence do you have that this is widespread and leading to organized treason?
General mismanagement, corruption and abuse in the Russian army.
Have you ever heard a person that was in the US army talk about any of those things? Why would this mean one thing in the RF and another in the US?
The number of casualties cannot be hidden any more either
Hidden? So you know the real number?
Recruiting more soldiers is getting harder and harder for Russia. Why else would they pay more and more money for recruitment?
This does not make it unsustainable. This was also the logic and methodology used by the US when it was officially in hot wars.
The people know how fucked up things are for a common soldier. Especially now that Ukraine is in Kursk. Where most of the soldiers were conscripts.
You have a read on the bulk sentiment of, “the people”? How?
Then why are Chinese banks refusing to work with Russia for fear of sanctions?
Because those are small Chinese banks that don’t feel confident they’ve worked around sanctions. Small fry. I assume you just read a headline from around two weeks ago?
Why Russian banks resorting to crypto currencies and paying middle-men to conduct trade?
Because it is an easy way to bypass international finance restrictions. The necessity of things like this is why other countries are desperate to join alternatives to SWIFT.
It certainly has. Refurbishing old soviet-era tanks from cold storage. Russia is not producing new tanks nearly fast enough compared to what they are losing in Ukraine.
Oh? How many is it producing vs losing?
Again with the trolling about strong Russian economy when the financial figures give quite a different picture.
Should I start calling you a troll every time you disagree with me? Is this logical, to you?
Russian currency reserves are falling. Next to go will be the gold reserves. Russia only has Chinese yuan and gold left. And China is now demanding payments in gold.
It is spending its reserves, yes. But this means less for a country with a strong industrial base and sufficient bilateral trade.
Inflation is really high.
Tell me the number. How does it compare to other countries over the last 4 years?
Ruble is weak. And holding on by artificial restrictions.
The ruble is stronger now than before the invasion.
Due to the war and declining population, both due to brain drain and lack of children, Russia has a severe worker shortage.
Then wages should be rapidly rising. Are wages rapidly rising?
These are not the signs of a strong and healthy economy.
To get a sense of how the real economy is doing you have to look at statistics you haven’t even mentioned.
No, they’re all on the same team and their collective is the most powerful thing.
Sure, if you’re not on the same team you get defenestrated. That is a powerful motivator. But it is a powerful motivator for a coup as well.
Hidden? So you know the real number? As you well know all we have are estimates. All realistic estimates put the number over 600000 killed and wounded. Of those 68011 have been confirmed killed by name. That means that there are more killed and wounded than in any Russian war after WW2.
You have a read on the bulk sentiment of, “the people”? How? There is a significant difference between what the Russian media is telling the people and what they see on Telegram and directly from their husbands and relatives. The Russian people are not stupid. They get to see the reality of the war by the sheer number of people not returning. They get to see the reality of the war by the pleas from soldiers for supplies and for justice.
Because it is an easy way to bypass international finance restrictions. LOL. Those middle-men are not cheap.
Oh? How many is it producing vs losing? Russia is producing at most two to three hundred tanks a year. And most of those are refurbished tanks. Based on the financials. And it is losing five to six hundred a year. Based on Ukrainian numbers.
Should I start calling you a troll every time you disagree with me? Is this logical, to you? I call you a troll when you ignore reality and keep repeating Russian talking points. I call you a troll when you demand I justify my position while providing no justification for yours.
Tell me the number. How does it compare to other countries over the last 4 years?
Russian inflation is right now at 9.1% and rising. Inflation hasn’t been below 4% since the beginning the war. At worst it has been at 17,8%. Compared to other economies of similar size it is among the worst in the world. Western countries are nowhere near these figures. Russian interest rates are high at 18%. Most of the growth in the Russian economy has come from the war economy. This is not healthy in the long term and will cause problems when the war ends.
The ruble is stronger now than before the invasion. Before the invasion the ruble was around hovering around 1 USD to 70 RUB. Right now it around 1 USD to 90 RUB. And you have to take into account that RUB isn’t being freely traded like it was before the invasion. There are also other significant currency control measures in place that prop up RUB. So no, the Russian ruble is not stronger than before the invasion.
Then wages should be rapidly rising. Are wages rapidly rising? They are rising rapidly in the sectors that are dependent on the war economy. Others simply cannot afford to raise them and have to go without staff.
To get a sense of how the real economy is doing you have to look at statistics you haven’t even mentioned. In this comment I’ve now gone through inflation and currency. What next? When are you going to start justifying any of your positions?
Sure, if you’re not on the same team you get defenestrated. That is a powerful motivator. But it is a powerful motivator for a coup as well.
I don’t know what those sentences mean. But I can tell you that your Great Man Theory here is incorrect.
As you well know all we have are estimates.
How can you know the real number is being hidden if you don’t know it? There is a lot of specific knowledge required to support your claim. I think we both know that is because you read it in a headline.
All realistic estimates put the number over 600000 killed and wounded.
Show me your most realistic estimate source.
Of those 68011 have been confirmed killed by name.
That is a very specific number. It is a number from BBC Russia, in fact, and it is misleading to say “confirmed” as it is actually based on trusting their guesswork and crowdsourcing. It is from 3 days ago.
Remember, your claim is that Russia is hiding the real toll. So you must know it yourself and be able to explain how it is being hidden.
There is a significant difference between what the Russian media is telling the people and what they see on Telegram and directly from their husbands and relatives. […]
You did not answer my question.
LOL. Those middle-men are not cheap.
This does not address what I said.
Russia is producing at most two to three hundred tanks a year. And most of those are refurbished tanks. Based on the financials.
What financials yell you the number of tanks Russia is currently producing?
And it is losing five to six hundred a year. Based on Ukrainian numbers.
Why would you accept their numbers at face value? Not even their NATO sponsors trust their numbers.
I call you a troll when you ignore reality and keep repeating Russian talking points.
This is how you process my disagreement with you, yes. By namecalling and making things up. Please try to do better.
I call you a troll when you demand I justify my position while providing no justification for yours.
You are repeatedly offering up absurdities. Your original comment was as simplistic as, “Russia could just leave” and you then invented a series of increasing absurdities cribbed from headlines and articles that were both know you just Googled. When you compound absurd claims you will have to spend a lot of time backing them up. At least, if the other person is paying attention.
My comments have mostly been to poke holes in the absurdities and ask you to make your implied knowledge consistent with your claims. It has not gone well.
You seem to think it is unfair that you have had to answer questions about your silly claims. This makes me think you don’t know how yo ask your own. Would you like me to teach you how to do so?
Russian inflation is right now at 9.1% and rising. Inflation hasn’t been below 4% since the beginning the war. At worst it has been at 17,8%. Compared to other economies of similar size it is among the worst in the world. Western countries are nowhere near these figures.
The 9% number is quarterly, for the year it will be around 7. Germany’s inflation rate in 2023 was around 6. It was around 4 in the UK for the same year, hitting 9% for a quarter the year prior. The US had rates of 7-9% in 2021-2022. Italy’s was 8 in 2022 and 5ish in 2023.
You are objectively incorrect about this being incomparable to other relevant states.
Most of the growth in the Russian economy has come from the war economy. This is not healthy in the long term and will cause problems when the war ends.
Ah yes, this is why 1950s America was just one big recession.
Before the invasion the ruble was around hovering around 1 USD to 70 RUB. Right now it around 1 USD to 90 RUB.
Ah, looks like I am wrong and despite early jumps it has now settled into a slightly lower exchange rate. Still not weak, however.
They are rising rapidly in the sectors that are dependent on the war economy. Others simply cannot afford to raise them and have to go without staff.
Both wages and employment are up, actually. You are telling very specific stories about behavior in contradiction of the wider facts. Presumably you are an undercover gonzo economist in Russia?
I wonder how the “Russia could just leave” person could suddenly possess such specific knowledge!
In this comment I’ve now gone through inflation and currency. What next?
You ignored sections of my last comment that would allow you to partially answer this question yourself. Perhaps instead of replying only to the parts you feel like, you could read the full response and internalize it?
When are you going to start justifying any of your positions?
I haven’t made the error if saying a bunch of silly, very specific things that disagree with reality. But you already said something like this and I already answered it.
