People argued this idea of a permanent Democratic majority in the 2000s and then again after Obama’s election but it never materialized. GenX, with its liberal sensibilities, the rise of college educations, and increased diversity among the population will make it impossible for Republicans to win. Then GenX got older and more conservative and people realized that minorities and college grads could also be made to hate immigrants and queer people.
This idea that “just waiting” is all it will take to end conservatism and other bigotries is a fantasy.
I’ve been hearing that for a while. Of course then again the people that said that don’t seem to have an answer for the fact that in 2022 Republicans swept the entire state by like 10 points. So maybe we should stop counting on that.
I don’t think we can cite a trend when the last two, soon to be there rounds have been with Trump on the R side. A sizable part of the gains can be attributed to people desperately looking to keep him out rather than any grand shift in attitudes of the state.
Look at the results for Governor and that with the way they’ve behaved on immigration, abortion, educational standards. That should be more telling.
Here’s a comparison of Bill Clinton’s, Al Gore’s, and Barack Obama’s election results in Florida:
Election Year
Democratic Candidate
Vote Percentage
Republican Candidate
Vote Percentage
Margin
1992
Bill Clinton
39.0%
George H. W. Bush
40.89%
-1.89%
2000
Al Gore
48.84%
George W. Bush
48.85%
-0.01%
2008
Barack Obama
50.91%
John McCain
48.09%
+2.82%
Florida is reliably blue now, right? Since 2010, the Hispanic proportion of the state has grown by 5 percentage points while the white proportion has shrunk by a similar number. It’s gotta be like Dem +8 by now.
Florida is different because conservatives move there when they retire or to escape COVID restrictions. And don’t forget, those Latinos in Florida are Cuban, so race isn’t as good an indicator.
Texas is really opposite. It’s getting large influxes of left-wing voters each year.
By 2032 Texas will be a solid swing state and the EC becomes near impossible for the GOP to ever win again
We can wait them out, and reap the benefits
There are two issues:
Parties aren’t set in stone, Republicans will shift some positions to appear more palatable and move some states redder
If they take power now they are likely to increase Gerrymandering and voter suppression to give themselves an advantage.
Eight years of right wing malignancy left, may the odds be ever in your favor.
People argued this idea of a permanent Democratic majority in the 2000s and then again after Obama’s election but it never materialized. GenX, with its liberal sensibilities, the rise of college educations, and increased diversity among the population will make it impossible for Republicans to win. Then GenX got older and more conservative and people realized that minorities and college grads could also be made to hate immigrants and queer people.
This idea that “just waiting” is all it will take to end conservatism and other bigotries is a fantasy.
Regardless, the only feasible way to go from the EC to the Popular vote will be if Republicans think they’ve lost the advantage the EC gives them.
I’ve been hearing that for a while. Of course then again the people that said that don’t seem to have an answer for the fact that in 2022 Republicans swept the entire state by like 10 points. So maybe we should stop counting on that.
Here’s a comparison of Barack Obama’s, Hillary Clinton’s, and Joe Biden’s election results in Texas:
This is the trend
I don’t think we can cite a trend when the last two, soon to be there rounds have been with Trump on the R side. A sizable part of the gains can be attributed to people desperately looking to keep him out rather than any grand shift in attitudes of the state.
Look at the results for Governor and that with the way they’ve behaved on immigration, abortion, educational standards. That should be more telling.
Here’s a comparison of Bill Clinton’s, Al Gore’s, and Barack Obama’s election results in Florida:
Florida is reliably blue now, right? Since 2010, the Hispanic proportion of the state has grown by 5 percentage points while the white proportion has shrunk by a similar number. It’s gotta be like Dem +8 by now.
Florida is different because conservatives move there when they retire or to escape COVID restrictions. And don’t forget, those Latinos in Florida are Cuban, so race isn’t as good an indicator.
Texas is really opposite. It’s getting large influxes of left-wing voters each year.