Image is a map of the approximate state of play of the military situation in Yemen, with the main focus being to cut off PLC access to Taizz (in the north of the salient). This map is from @bonzerbarry on Twitter (I would link to him directly but xcancel is down), who I recommend for coverage of the situation in the Middle East in general, and Yemen in particular.
My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
As I said in last week’s preamble, it remains comically unclear what’s truly happening in the strait. The main data point supporting oil tanker movements in the Strait being sufficient for oil flows to be completely restored are a few “independent trackers” including the big kahuna, Kpler, reporting on mostly recovered oil flows. The main data points that contradict this are: 1) satellite evidence of increasing strikes on tankers by Iran, as well as Ansarallah strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure; 2) a 1000% increase in the cost to hire a supertanker out of Hormuz compared to pre-war; 3) elevated and/or rising crack spreads; 4) elevated and/or rising diesel and gas costs in various countries around the world; 5) the new 40M SPR release by the US and the EU emergency diesel release as they bend the knee to the threat by the US to ban diesel exports; 6) PetroChina banning October export cargos to try and prevent domestic supplies from falling further; 7) Russia maintaining their diesel export ban; 8) refineries in India and the US literally exploding from the overwork (and some are now being forced into ~month-long maintenance periods); and 9) bond yields continuing to skyrocket across the Western world to heights unseen since the 2008 Great Recession or even before. So who can truly say?
Anyway. Trump has threatened a return to striking Iran after the midterms, with the aircraft carrier out in the Pacific heading for West Asia (perhaps replacing the USS George Washington? I’ve gotten mixed news), as well as a new amphibious landing ship which is likely going to relieve the one already present in-theater. The H.W. Bush has been found all the way off in Thailand, meaning that either there will be two or even just one aircraft carrier in the region surrounding Iran soon. As stated by many people many times before, the capacity for large strikes equal to the one in early March no longer exists, with the Navy forced hundreds of miles further away than during the first half of the year in response to Iran’s anti-ship missiles, and most bases in the region no longer safely operable with the ongoing interceptor famine. Trump has had trouble articulating exactly why a return to missile strikes would be necessary if Iran has indeed lost control of the Strait of Hormuz and if the blockade on Iran is working, with the only constant being the talismanic phrase “Iran must not acquire a nuclear weapon.” Araghchi recently remarked that Iran is prepared for a “doomsday war”, which demonstrates that if Trump is bluffing to intimidate Iran, then it’s just as unlikely to work as all the myriad other times. Iran is also dramatically expanding its number of battalions, and says they are advancing their missile technology to be able to hit targets further away, as well as moving targets at sea (a genuinely massive challenge for all militaries, not just Iran). The number of US troops soon to be in theater is an order of magnitude less than would be required to occupy a portion of Iranian territory for an extended period, and the threat to destroy the region’s fossil fuel infrastructure if Iran’s is hit is only more impactful now that global inventories have dwindled.
Ansarallah continues to make gains in their offensive, and are, as of me writing this, cutting off PLC access to the major city of Taiz, attacking the salient there from numerous directions, including both sides of the neck. The Saudi response to the rout of their mercenary groups in Yemen has been a lot of floundering. It’s hard for me to personally say to what extent their airstrikes are effective, but it certainly hasn’t stopped the advances, and Ansarallah’s capacity to respond to them by destroying their critical infrastructure has put them in a major bind. They’ve recently unveiled a plan to the media to conduct an offensive to retake the Red Sea coast or even all of Ansarallah’s territory, though everybody who’s been watching the Ukraine War knows that preannouncing your offensives is a bad omen for their actual effectiveness. Not because your enemy will know you’re coming, per se - they’d know regardless due to their intel of your mobilizations - but because it indicates that you care more about the optics of being seen to be “doing something soon” than actually conducting a well-planned and well-provisioned offensive. There’s also reports that the Zionists are becoming increasingly involved in trying to help the Saudis repel Ansarallah, which is a telling indicator of the value of the recent Mecca Agreement.
As I mentioned in last week’s preamble, Brazil’s first round has come and gone, and my sense of foreboding was largely vindicated. Polls before the election described a tight race with Lula out in front by 1 or 2 percentage points; this was, incidentally, the same lead by which Lula defeated Bolsonaro 1.0 years ago. Exit polls described a similar state of play. The actual results were the reverse situation, with Bolsonaro 2.0 out in front by 1 or 2 percentage points (47% to 45%). This avoids the catastrophe of a first round victory for Bolsonaro, and the disaster of something unsalvageable like a 49-42 lead, but is still decidedly in the L column for Lula’s chances without some major last-minute cavalry coming for the second round on October 25th. The impression I’ve gotten is that Lula’s poor performance is due to the combination of the very recent corruption scandal as a short term influence, the general economic malaise caused by the economic shockwaves of the Iran War as a medium term influence, and the lukewarm social and economic development made during Lula’s term as a long term influence. Regardless of the ultimate outcome, escaping the cycle of socdem-comprador-socdem-comprador is the challenge of the current era, particularly in Latin America, and especially when the US is retrenching into Latin America as they gradually withdraw or are kicked out of Afro-Eurasia.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Peter Aaby continues his fucked up “scientific” colonialism in the name of antivaxxing in Africa with Trump funding.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/oct/09/vaccine-trial-guinea-bissau-rfk-jr
Kill Peter Aaby.
Russian Footage Raises Questions Over Danish Account of Helicopter Incident
Russian state television has broadcast footage allegedly showing a September 14 encounter between a Danish Fennec helicopter and the Soobrazitelny, a Russian corvette conducting routine maritime border protection operations in neutral waters in the southwestern part of the Baltic Sea. The new footage raises questions about Copenhagen’s account of the incident in which signal flares were fired by members of the Soobrazitelny’s crew in the helicopter’s direction, to make the aircraft back off.
Read more...
The October 8th news report from Russian broadcaster Rossiya1 contradicts key elements of the Danish authorities’ version. While Copenhagen has maintained that the helicopter kept its distance from the Russian vessel and was fired upon without warning, the new footage shows the aircraft flying very close to the ship and Russian sources have reported that the crew attempted to establish radio contact but received no response. The footage does not show the flares being fired, however, and Danish state media has speculated that the images concern an entirely different incident. The Danish regime have yet to release their own footage of the encounter to back their claims.
Addressing the Nordic hermit kingdom’s parliament on October 6th, Danish leader Mette Frederiksen has naintained that her government considers Russian responsibility for the incident beyond serious dispute. Claiming that expression of doubt about the trustworthiness of Danish authorities were Russian attempts to sow division, she declared that Danish authorities could “obviously” be trusted and that the armed forces were “self-evidently” not to blame for the incident, while arguing that Denmark “cannot sit back and wait” for evidence of Russian responsibility. The episode has thus become another instrument in the right-wing Frederiksen regime’s efforts to frame domestic criticism of authorities and regime policies as Russian propaganda, even as key details of the incident remain disputed.
Sources:
Israeli media wants the public to believe that Trump has given them the greenlight to use nukes on Iran.
It is an interesting threat.
ICE agent shot by 72-year-old after early morning assault in Fresno, police say
FRESNO, Calif. (KSEE/KGPE) – An ICE agent who was found sleeping on a lawn in Fresno was shot in the stomach after police say he refused to move and attacked the 72-year-old homeowner, causing the homeowner to shoot him in response.
Yemeni forces repelled another Saudi proxy attack in the southwestern Lahij province:
Meanwhile, Spokesperson for the Yemeni Armed Forces, Brigadier General Yahya Saree, said the country’s military units have confronted Saudi-sponsored mercenaries, as they attempted to advance in the southwestern province of Lahij along the coast of Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Saree noted that the Saudi-backed militiamen were forced to retreat for the second time within hours.
Lots of C17s transport planes were moving towards the ME over the last few days. Iran is moving some schools in coastal areas to remote learning tomorrow. It looks like they are switching to max readiness for strikes.
Something like this has happened previously with no US attacks, but now US attacks are more likely because of all the tankers that Iran has hit recently.
This disrupts roughly 10% of U.S. oil production but is unlikely to have any lasting impacts and the hurricane isn’t expected to hit any major oil hubs.
Storm surges of nine feet expected, as well as up to fifteen inches of rain in the hardest-hit areas.
For reference, Hurricane Sally hit the Florida panhandle as a category 2 in 2020 and caused around $8 billion in damages.
I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter. Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel. Between our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, and this great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST! Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority. This is a very big and important announcement. Additionally, it must be understood, that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
In other words, the US unilaterally lifts their sanctions on Russian diesel out of desperation. Some commentators are making this out to be something it isn’t. Obviously Trump is going to paint it as a massive win that mostly benefits the US.
It’s not even clear from this if Russia must specifically sell some amount of diesel to the US, instead of the “Global Marketplace.”
Panama was hit by an earthquake, USGS just upgraded it to
an 8.0now revised to 7.7 from the initial 7.5 level. The Venezuela earthquake earlier this year was a 7.5, for comparison. Earthquake depth and location can mean a big difference between not that big a deal and total devastation.Trump does a Netanyahu impression. Plus he pokes at the libs.
Al Jazeera - Trump reiterates claim Tehran ‘weeks away’ from having nuclear weapon. Trump has doubled down on remarks that Washington stopped Iran from deploying a nuclear weapon. Without evidence, Trump said Tehran “would have blown up the Middle East” and then “headed for our country” had the US and Israel not launched a military campaign. The president also repeated comments about Tehran striking Los Angeles and San Diego that sparked bipartisan backlash earlier this week. He said:
“They would have probably hit places like San Diego, Los Angeles first.”
CBS News via AP - Sri Lanka has no plans to help 19 Iranian tankers stuck due to blockade, foreign ministry says. Sri Lanka’s government says it has no immediate plans to help 19 Iranian ships that have been anchored in the international waters near the island nation facing food, water and fuel shortages.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Thushara Rodrigo said Sri Lanka will put its national interest first before considering any help, and the companies that supply ships are aware of possible secondary sanctions from the United States. He said, however, there hasn’t been any communication from the U.S. warning of repercussions should Sri Lanka decide to help. Rodrigo said the ships are stationed 24 nautical miles from Sri Lanka’s coast and have reported shortages of food, water and fuel.
Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath told local Sunday Times newspaper the ships are Iranian oil tankers and they have been anchored off Sri Lanka for the past several months after the U.S. resumed its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving dozens of Iranian vessels stranded and unable to return home.
IRGC trailer shows the “new” Shahed-238 (Garan-3 copy) being used for the first time. I hope that Iran gets some Geran-5s from Russia, those seem great for striking ships in the SoH.
Gas update (using
AAA US national average)
Regular Current - 4.37
Regular Highest Recorded (6/15/22) - 5.02
Diesel Current - 6.27
Diesel Highest Recorded (9/22/26) - 6.52
Barcelona and Brazilian national team striker publishes content criticizing grueling work schedules and defending the social role of the State.
Article
Brazilian national team striker Raphinha, a key player for Barcelona, used his social media to express his political views in the final stretch of the 2026 presidential race. The 29-year-old athlete shared posts on his Instagram profile criticizing abusive working hours and defending principles aligned with Lula’s (PT) candidacy. With these posts, he became the first player in the current national team cycle to publicly indicate support for the candidate in the second round of the election.
The first piece of content shared by the player on his stories reflects on the physical and mental strain imposed by the demanding work routine in Brazil. The message openly criticizes grueling work schedules and regimes like the 6x1 shift, highlighting the negative impact of overwork on family life and workers’ health. The recording emphasizes that work that “hurts and takes years off your life” cannot deprive citizens of fundamental rights such as leisure, culture, and rest.
The statement shared by the winger questions discourses that romanticize excessive effort without considering the reality of the low-income population. “No poverty can withstand 14 hours of work, brother. If there’s one thing that can’t withstand 14 hours of work, it’s you. We’re talking about work that sticks to your skin, that wrinkles your face, that takes away your health, that takes away time with your children. Nobody who works 14 hours a day has a right to life ,” highlights the excerpt shared by Raphinha.
