• 26 Posts
  • 186 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • I choose not to think about it or include it in my mental threat model, the same way I choose to not worry about thermonuclear warheads.

    If there’s some exploitable backdoor and Intel gets owned, we’re all boned and there’s nothing we can really do about it. I don’t have anti-ballistic-missile systems, and I also don’t have the capability to make an entire hardware/firmware/os from scratch.

    So instead focus on the things you can control and are more likely to happen. Don’t plan for doomsday, plan for every day.


  • Can’t upvote this enough. It’s not the consumers, it’s the dealers calling the shots. Some examples:

    Looking for a Corolla hybrid: no dealer had one, and all of them said it could be 18 months or more before one would be available

    Looking for a RAV4 suv: we have 8 on the lot take your pick

    Looking for a Mazda 3 hatchback: the only one in the colour you want is a six hour drive away and no we can’t transfer it here

    Looking for a CX5 suv: we have literally a million of them

    In both examples the cars cost almost the same amount to build. They have the same drivetrain, engine, transmission, etc. But since the “suv” or “crossover” is taller and bigger they can charge 20-30% more, earning them more commission and dealer fees, so that’s what they order from the manufacturer. Unless you have months to wait, you take what you get.





  • So the reality is a bit more complicated than “big sparse country”. Freight railroads don’t really care about population density, just distance and operating margins. It comes down to who owns the rails and their motivations.

    A big capital investment like electrification is actually extremely profitable long term. Over 30-40 years it would save a class 1 railroad about 25% of their operating expenses for fuel and maintenance (diesel-electric units are complex high maintenance systems compared to big-ass AC motors). Even when factoring in debt servicing over that period it’s still a large overall win.

    The problem is that a big investment like that isn’t attractive to CN or CPKC, because they’re mainly concerned with positive quarterly reports. It’s the same reason our tracks are so shabby, it’s not that they can’t afford to it’s that their motivation is to move freight for the absolute lowest cost, speed and reliability be damned.

    In Europe & Asia the infrastructure is commonly owned by a state corporation, and they’re generally more willing to take on big projects like that so they can get more revenue from the train operators themselves. More passengers and higher speed = more tax revenue. The incentives are just different in that situation

    Another fun fact… if you were to add up the bonuses, dividends, buybacks, and dumb vanity projects (CN Tower) in the past half-century, they’ve already blown through more than double what it would cost to electrify and upgrade the most serviced trackage in the country. Instead we made some old guys obscenely wealthy.