I’m sorry but defeatism will soon be against the rules, please remove your post and think about what you did wrong. /j

The “retaliation” from Iran will probably be acquiring advanced technology from Russia that they do not have a domestic equivalent for, like S400 air defence systems, Su-35 fighter jets, or assistance with nuclear weapons technology. That’s been my guess for a while now. This, in combination with more extensive collaboration with the Yemeni Armed Forces with more advanced weaponry, which has already started with the Palestine-2 missile in my opinion. This is going to be bigger than another retaliatory strike by Iran. It’s about changing the balance of power long term. Working with Yemen on missile technology described here in this white paper PDF is a big deal. Just some excerpts worth taking note of:

• Launch detection by US spaceborne assets – no change versus similar ballistic missile. However, those sensors cannot provide impact point prediction anymore.
• Throughout all the flight phases, up to the impact, there is no way to predict impact point. Moreover, during the initial sustainer burn the final impact point deviations might exceed 100’s of Km. (each delta speed of 1 m/s is equivalent to about 1 Km deviation). The Iranian videos show sets of 3D maneuvers during this phase. This Iranian design might negate some western ballistic missile defense selective engagement strategies.

In short, the missile can manoeuvre and change course in certain stages of flight, there is no way to predict the target after the launch (which was previously possible with previous ballistic missiles).

Some assess that the “Fattah” missile will use a depressed trajectory, so it will limit ground radars and Electrical-Optical (EO) sensors range due to Line of Sight (LOS) geometry.
• High Radar Cross Section (RCS) and EO/Infrared(IR) signature due to the unique configuration, sustainer rocket and heat load.
• Various tracking and Track While Scan (TWS) algorithms might require adaptation to this non-ballistic behavior.
• Pull up maneuver phase – as the Re-entry Vehicle (RV) altitude might reach up to about 15 Km. most sensors (which are not close to the missile this point) might lose LOS to the RV target.
• Pull down maneuver – potential high g maneuvers might challenge tracking elements.

Basically the missiles depressed trajectory and pull up phase takes advantage of the earth’s curvature so that ground radars cannot get a line of sight on the missile

Israel is betting on Iran not wanting to be dragged into a regional war. The economic situation has’t been great for Iran with all the sanctions, it’s going to get even worse if a war is to happen (not to mention that many will be looking to flee the country if economic conditions continue to deteriorate). Most countries are not like Russia that can sustain itself and possess conditions that render it highly immune to Western sanctions (and even then, the impact is not insignificant).

So you end up in a situation where everyone is dragging their feet because they don’t want to start a war. And this is precisely what allows the US and Israel to keep calling everyone’s bluff and getting away with it.

Besides, everyone knows what the Zionists are capable of doing if they are truly on the brink of defeat. It is an ideology of ethnosupremacy with ethnic cleansing the Palestinians as their end goal, and the defeat of Israeli military would certainly mean the end of its ideology.

What do you think the believers would do when they have come to realize that their ethnosupremacist ideology can no longer be allowed to exist, that their dream of an Israeli state without Palestinians would have to be abandoned? Blowing up the world with nukes becomes the only option left for them. It is a rational decision for the irrationals.

back in late August I was thinking “wouldn’t it be hilarious if they did it on October 7th? nah, probably not”

now I’m beginning to think that they might

IIRC Shoigu was in Tehran (again) recently. Will something come out of that? Idk

Iran is just so fucking patient and careful