They will likely use the Crimean model in the east atleast. The west not sure. Theres a chance the west ends up being some sort of buffer neutral zone between EU and Russia.
Theres a chance the west ends up being some sort of buffer neutral zone between EU and Russia.
That would alo require installing compliant government. Last few decades proven that Russia can live with neutral or fencesitting neighbours but anything except prorussian cabinet would get couped or taken over fast.
I imagine it would depend how much of west Ukraine we’re talking about. It would do immense economic damage to Poland and likely create a lot of internal tensions. So, it would be destabilizing in the long run.
I’m not sure this is more likely. It may happen, depending on what parties ending up winning elections in the West. But if the current governments remain in power I can’t see them allowing it to happen even if it meant WW3.
I think there are strong signs that the US is already pivoting away from Ukraine. It’s not their core interest, and they’re far more worried about China than Russia. There were two schools of thought in US. One said that they need to take on China directly, and the other that it would be better to break up Russia first and surround China from the west cutting it off from military support and resources that Russia affords. The latter camp won and that’s why the war in Ukraine started. The US miscalculated that Russia would be a relatively easy nut to crack, and then they could choke off China from all sides while plundering Russian resources in the process. RAND basically laid it all out in a paper they put out https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
Now it’s becoming clear that Russia hasn’t been weakened, and that Ukraine will lose the war. So, US will leave Europe holding the bag while they move on to do fuckery in Asia. Meanwhile, Europe does not have the means to keep the war going on their own. So, Russia will be dictating terms in the end.
I think a more likely scenario is that Russia will simply absorb the eastern part and then install a compliant regime in the west.
They will likely use the Crimean model in the east atleast. The west not sure. Theres a chance the west ends up being some sort of buffer neutral zone between EU and Russia.
That would alo require installing compliant government. Last few decades proven that Russia can live with neutral or fencesitting neighbours but anything except prorussian cabinet would get couped or taken over fast.
Also possible that Russia would let Poland absorb it and make it their problem.
I highly doubt that Russia would be ok with a NATO nation taking over west ukraine. It would only happen if NATO nations forced it to be so.
I imagine it would depend how much of west Ukraine we’re talking about. It would do immense economic damage to Poland and likely create a lot of internal tensions. So, it would be destabilizing in the long run.
giving it to poland is basically giving the US free reign to fill it with military bases tho
I’m not sure this is more likely. It may happen, depending on what parties ending up winning elections in the West. But if the current governments remain in power I can’t see them allowing it to happen even if it meant WW3.
I think there are strong signs that the US is already pivoting away from Ukraine. It’s not their core interest, and they’re far more worried about China than Russia. There were two schools of thought in US. One said that they need to take on China directly, and the other that it would be better to break up Russia first and surround China from the west cutting it off from military support and resources that Russia affords. The latter camp won and that’s why the war in Ukraine started. The US miscalculated that Russia would be a relatively easy nut to crack, and then they could choke off China from all sides while plundering Russian resources in the process. RAND basically laid it all out in a paper they put out https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
Now it’s becoming clear that Russia hasn’t been weakened, and that Ukraine will lose the war. So, US will leave Europe holding the bag while they move on to do fuckery in Asia. Meanwhile, Europe does not have the means to keep the war going on their own. So, Russia will be dictating terms in the end.